Why I Don't Believe Brisbane House Prices Are About to Crash

Every time there is economic uncertainty, rising living costs or discussion about interest rates, predictions of a Brisbane property market crash quickly follow.

I don't agree.

While I do think the pace of growth will slow compared to the extraordinary gains we've seen since 2020, I do not believe Brisbane is heading for a significant property market correction.

When I look at the factors driving our market, most of them remain firmly in place.

Brisbane Is No Longer the Cheap Alternative

There is no question that Brisbane property prices have risen substantially over the past five years.

Many people point to this growth and argue that Brisbane has become too expensive. However, that argument often overlooks what is happening in other capital cities.

Historically, Sydney enjoyed higher wages, a larger economy and significantly higher property values than Brisbane. However, over recent years the wage gap between the two cities has narrowed considerably, while the difference in housing prices remains substantial.

Today, median earnings in Brisbane are broadly comparable with Sydney, yet Sydney houses still sell for hundreds of thousands of dollars more than their Brisbane equivalents.

That affordability gap remains one of Brisbane's greatest advantages.

The Migration Story Is Far From Over

For many Sydney residents, Brisbane still offers excellent value.

A family selling an average Sydney home can often move to Brisbane, purchase a larger property, improve their lifestyle and still retain a significant amount of equity.

That financial advantage has been one of the biggest drivers of interstate migration since COVID.

As long as Brisbane remains significantly cheaper than Sydney, I expect migration to continue.

Every family arriving from interstate creates additional demand for housing.

Many of these buyers are not relying solely on Brisbane wages. They are bringing equity from Sydney and Melbourne property sales and often have greater purchasing power than local buyers.

 

Brisbane Still Offers Better Value for Families

When people compare Brisbane and Sydney, they often focus on property prices.

However, housing is only one part of the equation.

Many families relocating from Sydney also find that private school fees are often lower in Brisbane. While fees vary between schools, some of Sydney's leading private schools charge well over $40,000 per year for senior students. Comparable schools in Brisbane can be several thousand dollars per year less expensive.

When those savings are combined with lower housing costs, families can significantly reduce their overall living expenses.

For many households, the decision to move north is not simply about buying a larger home. It is about achieving a better lifestyle while improving their long-term financial position.

A family may be able to purchase a larger home, spend less on their mortgage, reduce education costs and still enjoy access to quality schools, employment opportunities and lifestyle amenities.

When people talk about affordability, they often focus on property prices alone. In reality, many interstate buyers are assessing the total cost of living.

This is another reason I believe interstate migration into Queensland will remain strong. Buyers are not simply comparing houses. They are comparing the overall value of living in Brisbane versus remaining in Sydney.

Housing Supply Remains Tight

Demand is only one side of the equation.

The other side is supply.

Brisbane continues to face housing shortages across many parts of the market.

Construction costs remain high. Labour shortages continue to affect the building industry. Development sites are becoming more expensive and many projects struggle to stack up financially.

At the same time, Queensland's population continues to grow.

When demand increases faster than supply, prices generally remain supported.

This is one of the key reasons I struggle to see a major decline in Brisbane property values.

Brisbane Is Increasingly Being Priced by National Wealth

One of the biggest changes I have observed over the past few years is that Brisbane is no longer being priced solely by local incomes.

Many buyers entering the market are bringing equity from interstate property sales. Others are downsizers, investors, business owners or families receiving intergenerational wealth.

This is particularly noticeable in lifestyle suburbs where buyers are competing for a limited number of quality homes.

The market is increasingly influenced by national wealth rather than purely local wages.

This is very similar to what occurred in Sydney years ago.

Has Brisbane's Growth Been Justified?

I believe Brisbane's recent growth has been partly a catch-up to where the city should have been years ago.

For a long time Brisbane offered a strong lifestyle, improving infrastructure, population growth and a growing economy, yet housing remained significantly cheaper than Sydney and Melbourne.

The market has spent the last few years correcting some of that imbalance.

That does not mean prices will continue rising at the same pace.

The 15% to 20% annual growth rates we have seen recently are unlikely to continue indefinitely.

Markets naturally slow, pause and occasionally move backwards for short periods.

That is normal.

Could Prices Fall?

Of course.

No property market moves in a straight line.

Some suburbs will outperform while others may struggle. Properties requiring major renovation work may not attract the same level of buyer competition. Economic conditions will always influence confidence.

However, a market slowdown is very different from a market crash.

For a significant correction to occur, we would typically need to see one or more of the following:

• A substantial increase in housing supply.

• A sharp rise in unemployment.

• A major reduction in interstate migration.

• Forced selling on a large scale.

At present, none of those conditions appear likely.

 

My View

Will Brisbane property prices continue rising at 20% per year?

Probably not.

Will there be periods where the market pauses?

Absolutely.

But based on current migration trends, housing supply constraints and Brisbane's relative affordability compared to Sydney, I do not believe Brisbane is heading for a property market crash anytime soon.

The factors that have driven Brisbane's growth over the past five years remain largely unchanged.

Until that changes, I expect demand for Brisbane housing to remain strong.

 

If you'd like a current market appraisal of your home and an individualised view of what's happening in your area, I'd love to hear from you. Every property and every street tells a different story — I'm happy to give you a straight, honest picture with no obligation.